Alfa-Bank publishes macroeconomic report showing positive impact on Russian economy..
The presented macrostatistics shows that during the World Cup, 3% increased in comparison with the same period last year. The improvement in indicators is associated not only with the influx of foreigners, but also with the growth of retail lending by 18.9% y / y, which has a lasting impact. In addition, a record low unemployment rate (4.7%) was recorded, an increase in real wages by 8.7%, and nominal by 11.2%. Analysts expect the momentum received to continue in July.
In the six months of 2018, industrial production added 3% YoY, but this strongly contributed to a two-fold decline in imports in the second quarter. Despite the overall positive dynamics, Rosstat did not change the forecast for GDP growth.
The future prospects are not so optimistic. Due to the approved increase in VAT rates from 2019, the Ministry of Economic Development has lowered the estimate of future GDP growth from 2.1% y / y to 1.4% y / y. Delaying the introduction of the pension reform may lead to the government’s search for alternative ways to replenish and slow down the pace of development.
The Central Bank is expected to tighten regulations on non-mortgage lending to better manage inflationary risks. The global trend towards increasing interest rates is an additional risk factor. Therefore, despite the current favorable statistics, analysts of Alfa-Bank represent the prospects for the growth of the Russian economy in the second half of the year as vague..
Recall that Russia can become a leader in the implementation of unmanned vehicles.
text: Ivan Malichenko, photo: Infinica
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